This is a continuation of my gubernatorial roundup.

Florida:

• Rick Scott, Businessman
• Alex Sink, Chief Financial Officer

There are four new polls in this contest. The most recent is the PPP(D) done 10/10/10:

• Rick Scott (R) - 41%
• Alex Sink (D) - 46%

Whenever you look at a poll like this it is important to take note of the pool. This poll claims to 448 Likely Voters (LV). Problem is we really don’t know what the pool looked like. The old adage “If you torture the numbers long enough, they will confess to anything”.

The next poll is the Quinnipiac poll released 10/24/10 (784 LV):

• Rick Scott (R) - 451%
• Alex Sink - 45%

A statistical dead heat in this one. Independent voters seem to be moving toward Sink 54% to 34% for Scott.

Next is the Rasmussen poll released on 10/28/2010 (750 LV):

• Rick Scott (R) - 48%
• Alex Sink (D) - 45%
• Other Candidate - 3%
• Undecided - 4%

This poll, like the Quinnipiac poll, is a statistical dead heat.

The last poll I want to look at is the Mason-Dixon poll 10/27/10 (625 LV):

• Rick Scott (R) - 43%
• Alex Sink (D) - 46%
• Other - 4%
• Undecided - 7%

Nothing new to see here. It’s a dead heat.

This race is a tough one and when the polling is this close the key metric is what the only poll that matters says on Nov. 2. Voter turnout will decide this one. Who can get their base energized and out to the polls?

The latest ad by the RGA:

Georgia:

• Nathan Deal (R), U.S. Representative
• Roy Barnes (D), Former Governor

There are two recent polls in this race. The first is an Insider Advantage poll completed 10/24/10 (2119 LV):

• Nathan Deal (R) - 47%
• Roy Barnes (D) - 41%
• Libertarian - 5%
• Undecided - 7%

Rasmussen completed a poll in Georgia was done on 10/24/2010 (750 LV):

• Nathan Deal (R) - 49%
• Roy Barnes (D) - 39%
• Libertarian - 5%
• Other Candidate - 5%
• Undecided - 1%

Deal has held a statistical advantage for quite some time in this race. I think this is a “Leans Republican” race.

The RGA ad for Georgia:

Hawaii:

• James “Duke” Aiona (R), Lieutenant Governor
• Neil Abercrombie (D), U.S. Representative

There are a few polls of interest that are recent enough to matter. The first was done by Aloha/MRG 10/23/10 (1181 LV)

• Duke Aiona (R) - 44.5%
• Neil Abercrombie (D) - 49.5%
• Undecided - 5.2%

The next poll is the Honolulu Star-Advertiser 10/19/10 (608 LV)

• Duke Aiona (R) - 43%
• Neil Abercrombie - 51%
• Undecided - 5%

The final poll was done by Rasmussen on 10/13/10 (500 LV)

• Duke Aiona (R) - 47%
• Neil Abercrombie (D) - 49%
• Other - 1%
• Undecided - 4%

RGA ad for Hawaii:

This polling data suggests to me that this race could swing either way at this point. I am classifying this race as a toss-up.

Idaho:

• C.L. “Butch” Otter (R), Governor
• Keith Allred (D), President of The Common Interest

There has only been one recent poll in the last couple months performed by Mason-Dixon 10/22/10 (625 LV):

• Butch Otter (R) - 52%
• Keith Allred (D) - 30%

With a large double-digit lead over Democrat challenger Allred, this one looks to be in the bag for Republican Butch Otter

Illinois:

• Bill Brady (R), State Senator
• Patrick Quinn (D), Governor

Because this is a major race and a tight race there are several polls available for your perusal. The first is Fox News by Pulse Opinion Research:

• Bill Brady (R) - 44%
• Patrick Quinn (D) - 39%
• Other - 11%
• Undecided - 6%

The second poll was performed by the Chicago Tribune on 10/22/10 (700 LV):

• Bill Brady (R) - 43%
• Patrick Quinn (D) - 39%

The final poll is a Mason-Dixon poll conducted 10/22/10 (625 LV):

• Bill Brady (R) - 44%
• Patrick Quinn (D) - 40%

Quinn has made up nearly ten points on average in all the polling. There is a good chance that independents will lean in favor of Brady at the polls. I call this race a “Leans Republican”

RGA ad for Illinois:

Iowa:

• Terry Branstad (R), Former Iowa Governor
• Chet Culver (D), Governor

There are only two recent polls in this race and the reason why it has not received a lot of attention from the pollsters will be obvious after you see the results. The first poll is a Rasmussen poll from 9/23/10 (500 LV).

• Terry Branstad (R) - 55%
• Chet Culver (D) - 37%
• Other - 4%
• Undecided - 4%

The second relevant poll is the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll from 9/22/10 (550 LV):

• Terry Branstad (R) - 52%
• Chet Culver (D) - 33%

It is nearly impossible to overcome that spread for Culvert so Iowa is in the “Republican” category

Kansas:

• Sam Brownback (R), U.S. Senator
• Tom Holland (D), State Senator

I am only going to look at the one most recent poll in this race done by SurveyUSA 10/12/10 (619 LV):

• Sam Brownback (R) - 60%
• Tom Holland (D) - 32%

Clearly this is an insurmountable spread so this is a solid “Republican”