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The Gubernatorial Roundup – Part 2 (F-K)

This is a continuation of my gubernatorial roundup.

Florida:

There are four new polls in this contest. The most recent is the PPP(D) done 10/10/10:

  • Rick Scott (R) - 41%
  • Alex Sink (D) - 46%

Whenever you look at a poll like this it is important to take note of the pool. This poll claims to 448 Likely Voters (LV). Problem is we really don’t know what the pool looked like. The old adage “If you torture the numbers long enough, they will confess to anything”.

The next poll is the Quinnipiac poll released 10/24/10 (784 LV):

  • Rick Scott (R) - 451%
  • Alex Sink - 45%

A statistical dead heat in this one. Independent voters seem to be moving toward Sink 54% to 34% for Scott.

Next is the Rasmussen poll released on 10/28/2010 (750 LV):

  • Rick Scott (R) - 48%
  • Alex Sink (D) - 45%
  • Other Candidate - 3%
  • Undecided - 4%

This poll, like the Quinnipiac poll, is a statistical dead heat.

The last poll I want to look at is the Mason-Dixon poll 10/27/10 (625 LV):

  • Rick Scott (R) - 43%
  • Alex Sink (D) - 46%
  • Other - 4%
  • Undecided - 7%

Nothing new to see here. It’s a dead heat.

This race is a tough one and when the polling is this close the key metric is what the only poll that matters says on Nov. 2. Voter turnout will decide this one. Who can get their base energized and out to the polls?

The latest ad by the RGA:

Georgia:

There are two recent polls in this race. The first is an Insider Advantage poll completed 10/24/10 (2119 LV):

  • Nathan Deal (R) - 47%
  • Roy Barnes (D) - 41%
  • Libertarian - 5%
  • Undecided - 7%

Rasmussen completed a poll in Georgia was done on 10/24/2010 (750 LV):

  • Nathan Deal (R) - 49%
  • Roy Barnes (D) - 39%
  • Libertarian - 5%
  • Other Candidate - 5%
  • Undecided - 1%

Deal has held a statistical advantage for quite some time in this race. I think this is a “Leans Republican” race.

The RGA ad for Georgia:

Hawaii:

There are a few polls of interest that are recent enough to matter. The first was done by Aloha/MRG 10/23/10 (1181 LV)

  • Duke Aiona (R) - 44.5%
  • Neil Abercrombie (D) - 49.5%
  • Undecided - 5.2%

The next poll is the Honolulu Star-Advertiser 10/19/10 (608 LV)

  • Duke Aiona (R) - 43%
  • Neil Abercrombie - 51%
  • Undecided - 5%

The final poll was done by Rasmussen on 10/13/10 (500 LV)

  • Duke Aiona (R) - 47%
  • Neil Abercrombie (D) - 49%
  • Other - 1%
  • Undecided - 4%

RGA ad for Hawaii:

This polling data suggests to me that this race could swing either way at this point. I am classifying this race as a toss-up.

Idaho:

There has only been one recent poll in the last couple months performed by Mason-Dixon 10/22/10 (625 LV):

  • Butch Otter (R) - 52%
  • Keith Allred (D) - 30%

With a large double-digit lead over Democrat challenger Allred, this one looks to be in the bag for Republican Butch Otter

Illinois:

Because this is a major race and a tight race there are several polls available for your perusal. The first is Fox News by Pulse Opinion Research:

  • Bill Brady (R) - 44%
  • Patrick Quinn (D) - 39%
  • Other - 11%
  • Undecided - 6%

The second poll was performed by the Chicago Tribune on 10/22/10 (700 LV):

  • Bill Brady (R) - 43%
  • Patrick Quinn (D) - 39%

The final poll is a Mason-Dixon poll conducted 10/22/10 (625 LV):

  • Bill Brady (R) - 44%
  • Patrick Quinn (D) - 40%

Quinn has made up nearly ten points on average in all the polling. There is a good chance that independents will lean in favor of Brady at the polls. I call this race a “Leans Republican”

RGA ad for Illinois:

Iowa:

There are only two recent polls in this race and the reason why it has not received a lot of attention from the pollsters will be obvious after you see the results. The first poll is a Rasmussen poll from 9/23/10 (500 LV).

  • Terry Branstad (R) - 55%
  • Chet Culver (D) - 37%
  • Other - 4%
  • Undecided - 4%

The second relevant poll is the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll from 9/22/10 (550 LV):

  • Terry Branstad (R) - 52%
  • Chet Culver (D) - 33%

It is nearly impossible to overcome that spread for Culvert so Iowa is in the “Republican” category

Kansas:

I am only going to look at the one most recent poll in this race done by SurveyUSA 10/12/10 (619 LV):

  • Sam Brownback (R) - 60%
  • Tom Holland (D) - 32%

Clearly this is an insurmountable spread so this is a solid “Republican”

The Gubernatorial Roundup – Part 1 (A-C)

A breakdown of the gubernatorial contests across the Nation. I will be starting with the latest polling data and will proceed alphabetically in a multi-part series. I hope this proves useful as we head into this pivotal election.

This is States A-C.

With less that 3 weeks until the election, it is time to look at the gubernatorial races and see where things stand. As I have stated many times before, these races are absolutely vital (as are state legislative races) because of the congressional redistricting that we will be stuck with for the next 10 years.

Alabama:

The latest poll by Rasmussen on 9/21

  • Dr. Bentley (R) – 55%
  • Ron Sparks (D) – 35%
  • Other Candidate – 1%
  • Unsure – 8%

Alabama looks to be squarely in the Republican column at this point.

Alaska:

The Latest polling data I found was from Rasmussen on 10/16/10

  • Governor Parnell (R) – 52%
  • Ethan Berkowitz (D) – 39%
  • Other Candidate – 5%
  • Undecided – 5%

This race looks to be squarely in the GOP camp at this point.

Arizona:

The latest polling data in this race was done by Rasmussen on October 5, 2010 (500 LV)

  • Governor Brewer (R) – 55%
  • Terry Goddard (D) – 39%
  • Other Candidate – 3%
  • Undecided – 3%

This is another state that seems like a safe seat for the GOP.

Arkansas:

The latest poll was done by Rasmussen of course 09/30/10 (500 LV):

  • Jim Keet (R) – 41%
  • Governor Beebe (D) – 51%
  • Other Candidate – 2%
  • Undecided – 5%

With the incumbent at 51% in the latest polling data I have available, it would appear that this seat is safely in the Democrat column

**Update** 10/28/10 – The latest Mason-Dixon poll has Beebe up 26. This seat is lost to the Dems

California:

There are two recent polls in this major race. The first poll is Rasmussen on 10/3/2010:

  • Meg Whitman (R) – 44%
  • Jerry Brown (D) – 49%
  • Other Candidate – 4%
  • Undecided – 4%

The second was a Reuters poll done on 10/5/2101:

  • Med Whitman (R) – 43%
  • Jerry Brown (D) – 50%
  • Undecided – 7%

**Update 10/28/10**

The latest polling by CNN has Brown up 7 and Fox News/Rasmussen has Brown up 9.

I truly believe that California is a lost cause at this point. With an 18.2 billion dollar budget deficit and the man largely responsible (along with the state legislature) for the fiscal fiasco in California ahead in the polls, what can a logical person say? To add insult to injury, Ma’dam Barbara Boxer is also ahead of Carly Fiorina in the latest polling. Even though I do not live in California this is troubling on many levels, not the least of which is the inevitability of my tax dollars going to pay for a state bailout. I put California in the “Leans Democrat” column.

Colorado:

This is one of the more interesting races in the country. Here is the latest poll from Rasmussen 10/3/2010:

  • Dan Maes (R) – 16%
  • John Hickenlooper (D) – 43%
  • Tom Tancredo (I) – 35%
  • Other Candidate – 1%
  • Undecided – 5%

At this point, the race is clearly between Hickenlooper and Tancredo. I believe it would be in the best interest of the state for Maes to drop out and endorse Tancredo. I feel that is the only scenario where Tancredo will be able to win this one. Until then, I have put it in my “Leans Democrat” column.

**Update 10/28/10** Dan Maes was awarded my most recent Flaming Jackass Award and is now into the single digits according to PPD 10/23/10.

An Endorsement of Matt Mead by Ron Micheli

From the Desk of Ron Micheli

Dear Supporters:

I am writing to ask you to support Republican Matt Mead for Governor.  I ask you to support Matt because I am convinced that he will lead our state well.   Based on my years of experience as a state legislator and as a state department head, I endorse Matt without reservation.  He has the executive experience, the leadership ability, and command of the issues. Wyoming voters expect and need these qualifications in their governor.

You should know that I take this endorsement seriously. Since the August 17 Republican primary, I have spent considerable time reflecting about the outcome and the future for Wyoming.  I would like to share some of my thoughts that led me to this endorsement.  First, I think the Republican primary was conducted in the best spirit of our democracy. Second, I think Matt Mead, like me, ran a positive campaign focused on issues. Third, I think the strength of character and good judgment Matt showed under the pressures of the primary, as well as his humility in victory, are emblematic of the type of governor he will be – strong, wise, and unassuming.

I know Matt, like me, spent months traveling the state (often with his family by his side) to meet people one-on-one because that was important. Matt and I have talked, and the courtesy he has extended me and my family are what I would expect of him. Matt is a solid conservative who wants to keep taxes low, push back against federal overreaching, and run state government with fiscal restraint and discipline.

It’s time Wyoming put a Republican back in the governor’s office.  I ask you to join me in voting for Matt on November 2

Ron Micheli

Less Than 4 Weeks to the General Election

It’s hard to believe we are less than 4 weeks from what I believe will be the most critical election in our history, or certainly one of the most pivotal. The gubernatorial elections this cycle are vitally important for Republicans to win because governors and their state legislatures will be doing Congressional redistricting. This could impact us politically for a number of years. I am working on a article where I will be looking at the latest polling data from each of the 37 races and will be posting it to my Republican Governor’s Site for you enjoyment.

I am also going to be working on the U.S. Senate Races and as many pivotal House races as I have time for. It is going to be a busy few weeks! The results of these races will be on my GOPolitical Operations Site.

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